I am not a big FaceBook user, but our company has a marketing campaign on-going, so we are suppose to be hip and cool and monitor our company page. Because of the mental lapse, signing up for a class reunion, I get a lot of FB posts from people in my High School graduation class. Make a note- no web crawling after a glass of Scotch. Anyway, there has been an ongoing dialog from my peers about the world in the early 70s. One thread was about dress codes. The schools expected us to show up each morning with short hair or a long skirt - but not both. One day the world changed for us, schools simply dropped dress codes. Suddenly, you realized that girls actually had legs, and some guy could grow enough hair to need a pony tail. Amazing!
And, we were thrown into a world of controversy. What now? Last week we worried about the condition of our face, now we are having to talk about Vietnam, race politics, and women's rights. Huh? Most 17 year olds then either thought what their parents thought, or the exact opposite. What does this mean? Do I join the Kiwanis Club or become a Dead Head?
Many in my generation showed there feelings about war, oil, and race by taking to the street and marching with protest signs. Very little was accomplished, as we were too stoned to remember why they were walking in the first place. Today, young people are walking to actually change things... by not driving cars. And, that change for society is more radical than any SDS manifesto.
While sitting though yet another VC panel, one speaker said something remarkable. "What investments do you have in all the cool automotive technology being developed?" was the question from the floor. 'We have none" was the answer. "Young people are not buying cars, the median age of a car buyer in 2012 was over 50. Kids in general, do not care about cars. They buy one only as a form of transportation, and then powered by electricity if possible. In major metro areas, they can rent, share, or simple borrow cars for the rare time they really need one. That is a major change, and we are negative on anything in the automotive space!" A lady next to me with GM on her name tag later confirmed what the VC was saying. "Young people are increasingly ambivalent about cars, many only care about the Bluetooth integration or the size of the subwoofers".
Think about that. Nearly every major country lists auto manufacturing as a key industry. Tens of millions of jobs, billions in campaign contributions, and much national self-worth is wrapped up in cars and related industries. What is Italy without Ferraris? US without pickups?
Cars were the center of a young man's world in Southern California in the 70s. Now, they are just expensive pollution machines that sit idle 22 hours a day. Oil politics, pollution, traffic... all results of a society that puts a lot of cache on the automobile. Hard to admit for Ol' Si, a car guy who not only knows the words of the song 'Little Deuce Coupe', but knows what the words 'ported and relieved flathead mill' mean.
If, indeed, cars are no long something that people care about, will they be sold like everything else on Amazon? "Send me something red with the iPad connector" will be the order. With little differentiation, gross margins in the car industry will collapse, and with it a lot of industrial capacity. And, where will that spending go, if not for car payments? Will it go into savings? What will young people do for jobs? Maybe a small business will provide the job, and use the unneeded car payment.
In ol' Si's neighborhood, there are many small businesses being started by young people. Once you get past the pierced everything and neck tattoos, you see hard working business owners. One couple, who run a bakery near me, say they neither need nor want a car. They bake stuff, sell stuff, and are happy. They pay people to do deliveries, outsourcing the need for a car.
Maybe in a few years, your high end bagel fryer will have the same cache as a big-block Chevy did in my generation. Sitting on his Grandpa's lap, a young boy in 2047 may hear. 'My Hobart 503CV was the hot ticket then, son. I cranked out the best onion bagels in town and had all the girls chasing me!"
Given the state of the world, maybe the kids ARE alright.
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